An intensifying positive phase of the Indian Ocean in recent months has lead to the latest wet monsoon on record for India, worsened drought across Australia and recently been associated with unexpected warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface (and El Nino-look).

Days of strong onshore wind and and a full moon cause an extensive flooding event into Chesapeake Bay over the weekend. Enhancing this set of coastal flood-inducing circumstances are offshore connditions featuring warmer and higher than normal sea surface conditions.

Recent research published in the American Meteorological Society “Journal of Climate” provides an easy and quick methodology to identify where serious drought has developed and is likely to continue (unless a dramatic climate pattern change occurs). The research identifies the influence of deep (10-200 CM) soil moisture anomalies caused by long-term climate and the effectiveness of that deep layer soil moisture deficit on the shallow (0-10 CM) soil moisture anomalies caused by short-term climate and weather phenomena.

A leading contributor to the increased activenes of the North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone actvity ove rthe past 20 years has been the warming of the North Atlantic basin caused by the warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation.