Currently, two "warm blobs" are in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. A similar signature was present during early autumn 2014. What happened? The "Warm blobs" merged, and the atmosphere responded with a "ridge bridge" pattern across Alaska and compensating downstream "polar vortex" in the East U.S. by November. A similar scenario is POTENTIALLY setting up now!

Before issuing the Europe winter 2022-23 climate outlook, a review of what makes a cold winter in Europe is reviewed. Wintertime since the turn of the century is examined. Results identify two regimes: A cold period for most of the first 13 winter seasons of this century and generally mild winter seasons during the past 9 years.

As northern hemisphere mid-summer approaches, mid-latitude ocean waters are warming to much above normal levels off the East Asia Coast, north and northeast of Hawaii and east of the Northeast U.S. plus the Mediterranean Sea. ECMWF projects the warming to continue and intensify. Large areas of very warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are well-correlated with stronger-than-normal high-pressure aloft which increases risk of drought and anomalous heat in the affected areas.