Historically, ENSO phase entering a 3rd consecutive summer strongly supports widespread hostile drought for the U.S. biased toward the Great Plains historically but likely tilted slightly westward this summer season due to the already strong long-term drought across the western states.

The cold season for 2021-22 offered a lot of variety most of which was not friendly to the natural gas market. The cold season started with a very warm climate feature record warmth in December. However, the mid-winter when temperatures are coldest observed a reversal in the pattern featuring top-third cold in the high energy demand northeast quadrant of the U.S. February brought a “polar vortex” cold outbreak surging into Texas and pulsing across the East followed by another cold shot in early March.