Climate Impact Company continues to stress recent emergence of warm SSTA regions outside of the tropics commonly referred to as “warm blobs” and their influence on the regional (and hemispheric) climate patterns which are as important as the influence of ENSO. The character of climate patterns associated with “Warm blobs” is slow-moving and therefore more impactful.  

Since 2000 marine heat waves have increased especially since 2010. Most famous is the emergence of the “warm blob” in the northeast Pacific in 2013 which not only caused dramatic warming at the surface but also to several hundred feet in depth. Other “warm blobs” east of Australia and New Zealand are routinely monitored for their strength, persistence and influence on weather and climate. Provided is a brief assessment of the current location/intensity of "warm blobs" and the influence on the upper air patterns in each hemisphere.

Due to a combination of warmer than normal SSTA in the middle/northern oceans and a constricted polar ice cap, the East Pacific oscillation (EPO) has become the primary climate index to identify polar vortex patterns which cause could outbreaks into the U.S.

La Nina Modoki is rare! The last fortified La Nina Modoki occurred during quarter 1 of 1989. The climate patterns for quarter 1 of 1989 associated with this ENSO regime were generally much different from conventional La Nina. The La Nina Modoki favors a drier climate in South America and Australia and shifts typical storm tracks for mid-to-late winter across the U.S. while favoring a colder climate. The La Nina Modoki climate anomalies identified may not be exactly as indicated given the much warmer global oceans of the modern-day climate.