Climate Impact Company offers explanation for why North America 16-30-day (week-3/week-4) temperature forecasts have routinely produced very warm bias. Unusual presence and persistence of a summertime Northeast Canada polar vortex and convection phase Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) stretched across the tropical Pacific Ocean are the culprits significantly contributing to East U.S. heat and occasional historic rainfall events.

The U.S. soil moisture observations and trend reveal ongoing and worsening West/Southwest U.S. drought and adding Northeast U.S. dryness which is (also) strengthening. The southern Canadian Prairies to the Midwest States and Carolinas are the wet zones.

The U.S. observed the 19th hottest July in the 131-year climatology. Virginia and West Virginia were hottest on record for mid-summer. The eastern third of the U.S. was MUCH ABOVE normal during July. In July, the U.S. observed the 34th wettest mid-summer on record. Despite the heat, Virginia observed the 6th wettest July on record. Iowa observed their 2nd wettest July on record. Some states were very dry including Utah, Alabama, and Maine.

Striking is the amount of WET soil moisture regions across the globe just after mid-year. The central and eastern U.S. are much wetter and any important drought conditions have disappeared except for Southern Florida. In the U.S., the western states are encountering a severe drought which is worsening. The Canadian Prairies have unexpectedly shifted wetter while Southwest Canada is drier.