The global climate is expected to shift toward and into a La Nina regime during the 2024 North Atlantic and coupled with forecasts of very warm SST across the North Atlantic, 2024 has the chance to produce record-strength (and amount) of tropical cyclones. This statement is a likely sentiment of the government, academic, and private sector outlooks issued this spring. Climate Impact Company…March 28 Tropical Storm Risk/U.K…April 8 Colorado State University…April 4 NOAA…Around May 23.

Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) is an index used to identify the atmospheric response of the sea surface temperature (and pressure) anomalies in the Pacific equatorial region. The 2023-24 El Nino episode, according to MEI, was the 3rd weakest (MEI = 0.68) since 1979 despite moderate to strong oceanic intensity using conventional Nino34 index.

Oceanic El Nino is weakening based on weekly Nino SSTA. However, atmospheric El Nino peak just occurred, based on a strong negative southern oscillation index. Indicated is El Nino climate may last a little longer than oceanic El Nino which is expected to shift to neutral phase during Q2/2024.

So far, during winter 2023-24 in North America, the prevailing climate is exceptionally mild across Canada and the Northern U.S. However, an 11-day period of hostile cold interrupted the warmth on Jan. 11-21 thanks to cross polar arctic airflow from Siberia. Similarly, Europe has observed a very mild winter season. There have been brief cold weather exceptions, one in early December and a second Jan. 7-14 featuring arctic air.