A comparison between the regional SSTA-based Climate Impact Company constructed analog 500 MB forecast for the northern hemisphere for January 2024 with the ECMWF outlook reveals generally similar characteristics for mid-winter.

Early meteorological summer is usually drier than normal across Eastern Australia when El Nino is present. However, the past 30 days have featured robust wet anomalies across the eastern third of the continent in contrast with very dry weather of the last 3 El Nino years for the same period in 2015, 2009, and 2002. Rainfall forecasts through the remainder of December maintain the very wet East Australia pattern. Why is the unexpected rainfall occurring?

There is a likelihood for a complete reversal in global climate patterns from what they are now for later 2024. The potential for a long-term change in the ENSO cycle is emerging on the horizon.

Of interest, is the reasonable certainty by many dynamic and statistical ENSO phase forecast models that La Nina will replace the current El Nino during the last third of 2024. Consequently, a brief glimpse as to what to expect for winter 2024-25 temperature patterns in North America and Europe plus rainfall patterns for summer 2024-25 in South America and Australia is reviewed.