The cold weather forecast for early to middle of next week across ERCOT is stronger. Currently, the consensus of all forecast models yields a 3-day event of <32F in Houston with coldest morning at 24F on Jan. 21. By comparison, cold air events Uri (Feb. 14-20, 2021) and Elliot (Dec. 21-26, 2022) were stronger and longer in duration.

The warmest year on record for the U.S. was 2024. All states were either MUCH ABOVE normal or RECORD warm. All-time records were observed in 18 states from Texas/Oklahoma to the Upper Midwest/Northeast U.S. The year of 2024 ranked 19th wettest on record in the U.S. MUCH ABOVE normal precipitation was observed in Wisconsin, Louisiana, and Rhode Island with ABOVE normal precipitation occurring in 18 states.

The wet forecast bias by all models across Brazil is worsening. The maximum error for the 1-5-day, 6-10-day, and 11-15-day period from the past 30 days is 3+ in. of rain. The ECM is cited due to the worst verification although other models are very close, including GFS.

Beginning later in the first week of January an upper trough begins to lock-in on the U.S. East Coast, well supported by conventional climate signals such as negative phase AO, NAO, WPO, and EPO. Cold is pushed into the Southeast U.S. including Florida late period while a snowy pattern develops from the Upper Midwest to New England. During the week of Jan. 6-13, the upper trough amplifies as the high latitude blocking pattern strengthens.