The early meteorological summer 2025 U.S. soil moisture condition projects a large drought across the Southwest U.S. including the southern half of both California and Texas. Drought is also projected for much of the Atlantic Seaboard plus northern Florida. Dry soil conditions extend across the North-central U.S. plus parts of the Gulf Coast through the interior East U.S. and southern Florida.

A brief review of MAR/APR/MAY 2025 temperature and precipitation anomaly forecasts based on a constructed analog heavily weighted toward current and projected regional SSTA regimes. In the U.S., southern drought expansion while Western Russia turns wet and Western Europe drier. A dry autumn for Brazil ahead!

Climate forcing by colder than normal conditions in the stratosphere during meteorological winter 2024-25 centered on Greenland produced a mostly warmer than normal winter across the northern hemisphere, especially Canada and Eurasia. However, there was a notable exception. Two brief stratospheric warming events took place across Canada, one just after mid-January and another during mid-February. Each event caused a polar vortex episode in North America.

The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society released a collection of Nino34 SSTA forecasts for 2025 earlier today. The consensus of dynamic (and especially) statistical Nino34 SSTA forecasts is a trend toward a “double dip” La Nina for later this year. Previously, Climate Impact Company issued a Nino34 SSTA constructed analog forecast indicating a second La Nina later in 2025 somewhat more intense than the 2024-25 version.