The warmest year on record for the U.S. was 2024. All states were either MUCH ABOVE normal or RECORD warm. All-time records were observed in 18 states from Texas/Oklahoma to the Upper Midwest/Northeast U.S. The year of 2024 ranked 19th wettest on record in the U.S. MUCH ABOVE normal precipitation was observed in Wisconsin, Louisiana, and Rhode Island with ABOVE normal precipitation occurring in 18 states.

The wet forecast bias by all models across Brazil is worsening. The maximum error for the 1-5-day, 6-10-day, and 11-15-day period from the past 30 days is 3+ in. of rain. The ECM is cited due to the worst verification although other models are very close, including GFS.

Taking a look at the 11-15-day East U.S. temperature anomaly outlook reveals lingering cold when combining the GFS and ECM forecasts. However, AI models offer wildly different projections (colder or warmer). So...a look at climate diagnostics reveals what direction to rely.

The updated month 1-4 climate outlook for the U.S. features increasing forecast confidence based on the influence on North America climate by dramatic cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation and warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A weak ENSO regime has limited influence.