A sophisticated analog system, the machine learning AI 4Cast Net V2 GFS ENS, projects above normal wind speed risk (at 100 meters) in the Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas for middle August and across the Caribbean Sea for late August. Implications for potential tropical cyclones are suggested by these forecasts.

To help generate new season 1-4 ahead global climate forecasts, a constructed analog projection (through 2027) for ENSO, PDO, AMO, and IOD is revealed. The ENSO outlook indicates weak La Nina potential for Q4/2025 coupled with -IOD which supports wet Australia climate. The tendency of ENSO toward weak La Nina increases risk of significant tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during AUG/SEP/OCT. The longest -PDO on record will continue possibly changing character to cooler Northeast Pacific SSTA (which promotes La Nina). The AMO regime stays warm through 2027.

Some forecast models have insisted that weak La Nina redevelops by quarter 4/2025. Diagnostics confirm the La Nina potential. During recent weeks a traditional cool phase Pacific decadal oscillation has formed, and the attendant atmospheric wind is driving cool waters off the U.S. West Coast toward the tropics south and southwest of Hawaii. Upper ocean heat has suddenly cooled. If the current trend persists, weak La Nina could emerge by northern hemisphere mid-autumn.

The Operational GFS and ECM forecast models are not projecting hurricane threats through their 15-day forecast period which brings us to August 4th without a hurricane so far during the 2025 season. Since 2018, the season’s first hurricane occurred prior to August 1st and during the 2016-24 active period (seasonal activity about 30% higher than the 30-year normal) the average date of the first hurricane is July 14th.