Beginning later in the first week of January an upper trough begins to lock-in on the U.S. East Coast, well supported by conventional climate signals such as negative phase AO, NAO, WPO, and EPO. Cold is pushed into the Southeast U.S. including Florida late period while a snowy pattern develops from the Upper Midwest to New England. During the week of Jan. 6-13, the upper trough amplifies as the high latitude blocking pattern strengthens.

Marine heatwaves remain a dominant force on global climate as 2024 ends. Climate Impact Company identifies one dozen well-organized MHW’s with each expected to continue into the New Year. The dominant presence of MHW’s may have slowed La Nina onset. MHW’s bias oceanic regions (and nearby land masses) with above normal strength high pressure aloft (warmer climate) and increased low-level atmosphere moisture to propel over-achieving storms.

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecast across Australia for JAN-APR 2025 is updated. The forecast is based primarily on the influence of continental climate by the ominous presence of marine heat waves and a weak La Nina episode.

The 2016-24 active period for tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin is forecast to continue in 2025. During the 2025 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season similar climate conditions are forecast including neutral ENSO shifting back to La Nina and a warmer than normal North Atlantic basin. The preliminary seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecast for the 2025 season indicates 20 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes plus the 6th highest ACE index (193) on record. The risk of a dangerous season in the Gulf of Mexico is >50 percent while analogs indicate mixed risk for the U.S. East Coast.