As a review, a look at the July 1994 cold surge into Brazil is provided. The cold surge peaked July 10-11, 1994, in Brazil causing a widespread coffee freeze that destroyed 30% of the crop according to U.S. media reports at that time. The cold air mass was made severe by the presence of a deep upper trough centered on Uruguay. The proximity of the deep upper trough to Brazil caused the extreme cold.

During the past 10+ years, large areas of (mostly) oceanic warming have equaled or surpassed ENSO as leading influences on climate in the middle latitudes. One exception to the warming oceans is the North Atlantic warm hole usually vividly present during the summer season south or southeast of Greenland. So far during meteorological summer 2024, the NAWH pattern is quite strong and located west of Ireland.

ECMWF identifies significant changes in the upper 100 meters of each ocean basin during June 2024. Equatorial Indian Ocean upper ocean heat change supportive of -IOD ahead? Equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat trend indicates no hurry for La Nina development. Record warm equatorial Atlantic upper ocean heat fades.

The Climate Impact Company North Atlantic basin seasonal activity forecast is updated. The seasonal activity forecast has increased dramatically propelled by the very warm North Atlantic basin and neutral ENSO to weak La Nina climate ahead. The activity forecast now indicates 24 tropical storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index is revised sharply upward to 232. The ACE index projection is second highest on record, trailing only 2005 (245).