The 5th day of the month release of the ECMWF monthlies yields high impact hot and dry projections for JUN/JUL/AUG 2025 across the Great Plains and Central Europe. Parts of these regions are already in drought and the outlook from ECMWF implies intensifying drought for summer 2025.

The Gulf of Mexico is very warm at 0.73C above normal, a warmer change of 0.17C during the past 2 weeks. The bulk of the anomalous warmth is across the Northern Gulf of Mexico and linked to the very warm month of April across the Gulf States and more recently to heavy rains evolving over Texas. The Gulf of Mexico is nearly half of a degree C warmer than 1 year ago.

The current SSTA pattern across the North Atlantic basin is somewhat cooler than one year ago. The current North Atlantic basin SSTA is +0.25C which is close to +1 St Dev compared to +0.79C one year ago which is >+3 St Dev. The main development region (MDR) is the center of the cooler SSTA change and right now, is almost exactly at normal for late April. The Caribbean Sea marine heatwave has weakened.

The 2-meter medium range temperature anomaly forecast skill across North America during the past 30 days reveals ECM ENS as the top model for both periods. The AI Graph Cast finished number 2 for the 6-10-day period while the improving CMC ENS reached number 2 in the 11-15-day period. Once again, GFS produced the lowest skill.