The current SSTA pattern across the North Atlantic basin is somewhat cooler than one year ago. The current North Atlantic basin SSTA is +0.25C which is close to +1 St Dev compared to +0.79C one year ago which is >+3 St Dev. The main development region (MDR) is the center of the cooler SSTA change and right now, is almost exactly at normal for late April. The Caribbean Sea marine heatwave has weakened.

The 2-meter medium range temperature anomaly forecast skill across North America during the past 30 days reveals ECM ENS as the top model for both periods. The AI Graph Cast finished number 2 for the 6-10-day period while the improving CMC ENS reached number 2 in the 11-15-day period. Once again, GFS produced the lowest skill.

Climate Impact Company monitors marine heatwaves (MHW) due to their recent (past 10 years) increased presence and intensity and influence on climate patterns. Generally, anomalous high pressure extends across and downwind MHW regions, promoting drought risk while also adding low-level moisture to the atmosphere to cause over-achieving precipitation events and intensifying tropical cyclones.

The cool cycle of the Pacific decadal oscillation has strengthened during recent years and will reach 30 years in duration if continued through 2026 as forecast by the Climate Impact Company constructed analog prediction. The 30-year duration matches the previous longest cool cycle observed during the middle 1940’s to middle 1970’s. Are we due for a long-term cycle change of the PDO?