Since 1979 the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean to the east of the Dateline has produced peak subsurface cool signatures during La Nina, most dramatically during late last century with more frequent but less intense peak subsurface cool signatures during La Nina in this century. The JAN-25 subsurface cool anomaly was -1.32 and the coolest monthly signature from the 2024-25 cold ENSO episode.

Brazil rainfall forecasts by all operational models have been notoriously too wet during the summer season. However, support for a wet 15-day outlook across much of Brazil has synoptic scale weather support and seems reasonable. The AI Graph Cast ECM ENS which has been competitive with GFS and ECM is somewhat drier.

The MJO shift through the eastern Indian Ocean tropics to north of Australia and West Pacific tropics is indicated by the MJO 115-day forecast phase_3, phase_4, and phase_5. When MJO enters the phases listed during mid-winter a milder Pacific maritime influence is generated on U.S. climate.

The cold weather forecast for early to middle of next week across ERCOT is stronger. Currently, the consensus of all forecast models yields a 3-day event of <32F in Houston with coldest morning at 24F on Jan. 21. By comparison, cold air events Uri (Feb. 14-20, 2021) and Elliot (Dec. 21-26, 2022) were stronger and longer in duration.