Combining NOAA and Climate Impact Company (CIC) identification of current global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) SSTA forecast for APR/MAY/JUN 2026 renders expansion of marine heatwave (MHW) risk for 2026. According to NOAA, aerial coverage of global MHW’s is 23% in FEB-26 and forecast to increase to 30% by mid-year and 37% by end of 2026.

As of February 17th, the aerial coverage of ice across the Great Lakes is 47%. Since 2014, the current aerial coverage of Great Lakes ice is about average. When Great Lakes ice has been above average as observed during the 2013-14/2014-15 polar vortex winter seasons, FEB/MAR/APR climate across North America was biased colder than normal. When ice is at moderate levels similar with 2026, a cold bias during FEB/MAR/APR appears to the west of the Great Lakes region

The subsurface eastern equatorial Pacific continues too steadily warm. A Kelvin Wave moving east across the Dateline during early December reached waters off northwest South America recently while a second Kelvin Wave emerged near and east of the Dateline and is drifting eastward. The atmosphere remains slow to respond as southern oscillation index (SOI) stays positive and 15-day forecasts maintain the positive phase.

GFS indicates a progressive MJO toward the Dateline in the 8-14/11-15-day period. If so, ongoing U.S. warmth continues and could become stronger. Yesterday, NOAA introduced the Relative Operational Nino Index (RONI) which provides a new Nino34 index accounting for the historical general warming of the global tropics. But! Does this new index effectively identify ENSO pattern change and intensity?