Vigorous positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is the lead climate signal supporting the warm pattern across the U.S. during the past 14 days. The negative phase of the Pacific North America (-PNA) has dominated in recent weeks although under-performing as a wet/snowy weather maker in the Northwest/West U.S. while the attendant dry signal for the Southeast is strong.

A check on skill scores for North America medium range forecasts as meteorological winter closes. Using anomaly correlation provided by CWG/SVMW, the 6-10-day skill scores indicate AIFS ENS remains (routinely) the top model. ECM ENS typically ranks second to AIFS ENS and collectively, using both 30-day and 7-day skill scores, that ranking remains.

Meteorological summer 2025-26 produced harsh climate extremes across Australia. Most of the southern half of Australia observed MUCH ABOVE normal anomalous heat. The heat was accompanied by locally very dry climate in parts of Victoria and Northeast New South Wales plus Coastal Southwest Australia. However, summer 2026 will be remembered for prohibitive rainfall centered on the east-central to northeast continent which became enhanced to an all-time-record level during February.

The eastern equatorial East Pacific subsurface is impressively warm and continues to warm, the strongest (warm) signature since Q2/2023. However, at the surface, only the Nino12 region has warmed significantly (+1.23C). The Nino34 region remains slightly cooler than normal (-0.11C) confirming neutral ENSO phase.