The outlook is based on historical regional SSTA patterns including vigorous development of El Nino and ongoing soil moisture conditions similar with expectations for middle 2026 and the correlating upper air pattern generating sensible weather. The outlook is consistent with 5/4 forecast emphasizing anomalous heat in the Northwest and Gulf States, with dryness enhancing heat in the Gulf region, Northwest U.S., and Upper Midwest.

This week’s heat spike in the East and Southeast weighs heavily on national electricity demand. The national CDD count lowers to near normal next week. The ECM forecast is wetter and suppresses heat risk into early June while other models are less wet allowing some rewarming in the East. In the extended range, 2 of 3 AI models shift much warmer for the week ending June 15th while CFS shifts cooler to near normal.

Combining SPI6 and CAS soil moisture anomaly forecasts for July, an ALERT for excessive heat across ongoing or developing drought areas in the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States and Great Plains is issued.

The U.S. Weekly Drought Monitor analysis reveals a slight increase (76%) from the previous week in aerial coverage of dry-to-drought soil moisture conditions while severe (D3-D4) drought remains unchanged at 19%. During May so far, U.S. soil moisture tendency is much drier across the Midwest States and much wetter in the Gulf region. Wet weather including daily severe weather events regenerates in the Central U.S. through the weekend into early next week!

Regarding the cool season precipitation climate across South America during Super El Nino, the 2015, 1997, and 1982 episodes combine to produce a wet climate across Southeast Brazil and Paraguay while Northwest Brazil is very dry. The most recent Super El Nino (2015) produced a slightly wetter Southeast Brazil climate pattern.