Developing El Nino usually produces lack of trade winds or a reversal to westerly wind direction in the equatorial central/east Pacific Ocean. However, the expected trade wind regime is not present. In fact, in early June, GFS projects a swath of moderate trade winds in the Nino4/Nino34 regions.

The U.S. Drought Monitor reported a whopping 44.5% of the U.S. in D2-D4 (severe to exceptional) drought last Thursday. Hardest hit is the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic States, the Mid-south U.S., and parts of the central and southwest Great Plains plus Interior West. The aerial coverage of hostile drought conditions is attributed to building dryness of this decade propelled by a mostly La Nina-like climate pattern.