The outlook is based on historical regional SSTA patterns including vigorous development of El Nino and ongoing soil moisture conditions similar with expectations for middle 2026 and the correlating upper air pattern generating sensible weather. The outlook is consistent with 5/4 forecast emphasizing anomalous heat in the Northwest and Gulf States, with dryness enhancing heat in the Gulf region, Northwest U.S., and Upper Midwest.

This week’s heat spike in the East and Southeast weighs heavily on national electricity demand. The national CDD count lowers to near normal next week. The ECM forecast is wetter and suppresses heat risk into early June while other models are less wet allowing some rewarming in the East. In the extended range, 2 of 3 AI models shift much warmer for the week ending June 15th while CFS shifts cooler to near normal.