08/15/2023, 8:09 am EDT

Marine Heat Waves Remain Dominant, Influence El Nino 2023-24

In the North Pacific, an immense MHW has strengthened across the northwest basin. Similarly, MHW NEP23A in the northeast Pacific has strengthened and shifted to the northwest coast of North America. In the North Atlantic basin, the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) recently shifted to coastal West Europe. However, the rapid development of a MHW off Newfoundland during late spring is now weakening quickly. The MHW off northwest Africa extending to the western Mediterranean Sea has weakened slightly.
08/13/2023, 3:41 pm EDT

More Wild Weather Second Half of August in U.S.

While extreme heat shifts northward, another major issue is potential for excessive flooding rainfall across the Interior West and Southwest U.S. including California. An upper trough entraining a tropical cyclone early in the 6-10-day period causes a long duration period of wet weather covering much of the West. Flash flood risk is highest in Southern California, the Southwest Desert, and the Great Basin!
08/11/2023, 11:59 am EDT

ERCOT Heat to Become Less Intense: PJM-West Heat Spike Possible

Possibly due to seasonality, a transition toward a climate pattern with greater influence from the tropics, the far Southern U.S. including the Gulf States and particularly Texas are forecast to lose their tendency for extreme heat or produce a choppy not pattern as indicated with the SERC 15-day outlook.
08/11/2023, 8:07 am EDT

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Season Scorecard

Forecast factors suggest the bulk of this year’s activity occurs in a 7-week period from late August to early October. Most of the tropical cyclone activity projected for 2023 (by NOAA, CSU, TSR, and CIC) should occur during this time.