08/06/2023, 11:12 am EDT

Scary Tropical/Subtropical North Atlantic Basin SSTA as The Most Active Part of TC Season Begins

We’ve entered the most active part of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season (after Aug. 1st). For now, the basin is all clear. However, normal to above normal hurricanes/major hurricanes remain in the forecast primarily due to the record warm surface of the North Atlantic tropics/subtropics. The forecast is unique, a potential big year for hurricanes in the face of a developing El Nino climate. Provided are the latest daily SSTA analysis for the Gulf of Mexico, western North Atlantic, and main development region (MDR) in the outer tropics. The Gulf and MDR are record warm. Given the super warm SST, if the proper environment evolves, the potential for unusually strong hurricanes is high!
08/01/2023, 10:34 am EDT

The El Nino Ridge Warms Mid-winter in South America.

A warm mid-winter pattern across South America this year thanks to an amplified upper-level ridge centered just-off the North Coast of Chile and inspired by aggressive anomalous warmth of the northeast South Pacific Ocean off the South America Coast and vigorous El Nino warming of the eastern tropical Pacific.
08/01/2023, 7:52 am EDT

The Ocean/Atmosphere July Pattern Change Affecting Europe Climate

An upper trough emerged across the very warm SSTA pattern west of Europe and the rapid cooling of the ocean surface caused latent heat loss that amplified the upper trough to soak and cool much of Europe in late July while a compensating downstream upper ridge strengthened, entrained North Africa heat, and caused harsh hot and dry weather for South/Southeast Europe.