08/10/2023, 8:28 am EDT
While oceanic El Nino onset was announced by NOAA in June, the atmosphere is lagging with a lingering memory of the 2020-23 lengthy La Nina keeping atmospheric ENSO in neutral phase.
08/10/2023, 8:20 am EDT
The ERCOT System daily temperature average persists in the excessive hot zone into early next week. However, all forecast models are indicating the extreme heat should ease slightly.
08/09/2023, 8:17 am EDT
Regions of drier change during the past 3 months outnumber the wetter change by 14-4. One possible explanation is the increased mid-atmospheric high pressure related to large regions of anomalous warm SSTA and causing dry climate.
08/09/2023, 7:49 am EDT
Mid-troposphere relative humidity is very dry across the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea suppressing tropical cyclone risk.
08/08/2023, 7:45 pm EDT
July 2023 ranked 11th warmest in the 129-year U.S. climatology. Several states observed all-time-record hot months of July including Arizona and New Mexico where the wet summer 2023 monsoon failed, Florida (surrounded by record warm ocean surface temperatures), and Maine. Most of the West and South U.S. plus Northeast Corridor U.S. observed top 10 hottest mid-summer.
08/08/2023, 5:26 am EDT
Since June 11th, a total of 15 days has produced near 500 or more severe storm (damage) reports. More than 25% of the time during this 8-week period, a day when an unusual amount of severe weather has generated. The highest total of severe weather reports was 1,049 occurring yesterday most concentrated over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S.
08/07/2023, 12:01 pm EDT
NOAA ENSO forecast models continue to show uncertainty regarding El Nino 2023-24 strength. The NCEP CFS V2 remains the most aggressive forecast while several other models maintain the current moderate intensity with no additional strengthening. Note that a reversal to La Nina is indicated for the middle of 2024.
08/06/2023, 1:57 pm EDT
The Northeast Pacific marine heatwave (NEP23A) has shifted east and reached the Alaska, Canada, and Northwest U.S. Coast. The warming near the coast during the past 30 days is immense.
08/06/2023, 11:12 am EDT
We’ve entered the most active part of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season (after Aug. 1st). For now, the basin is all clear. However, normal to above normal hurricanes/major hurricanes remain in the forecast primarily due to the record warm surface of the North Atlantic tropics/subtropics. The forecast is unique, a potential big year for hurricanes in the face of a developing El Nino climate. Provided are the latest daily SSTA analysis for the Gulf of Mexico, western North Atlantic, and main development region (MDR) in the outer tropics. The Gulf and MDR are record warm. Given the super warm SST, if the proper environment evolves, the potential for unusually strong hurricanes is high!
08/03/2023, 7:25 pm EDT
The meteorological summer (JUN/JUL/AUG) 2023 CDD is 887 ranking the 8th coolest of this century. Only Texas and the Upper Midwest have observed warmer than normal temperatures so far during summer 2023 while California and the Intermountain West are cool and the East near normal.
08/01/2023, 10:34 am EDT
A warm mid-winter pattern across South America this year thanks to an amplified upper-level ridge centered just-off the North Coast of Chile and inspired by aggressive anomalous warmth of the northeast South Pacific Ocean off the South America Coast and vigorous El Nino warming of the eastern tropical Pacific.
08/01/2023, 7:52 am EDT
An upper trough emerged across the very warm SSTA pattern west of Europe and the rapid cooling of the ocean surface caused latent heat loss that amplified the upper trough to soak and cool much of Europe in late July while a compensating downstream upper ridge strengthened, entrained North Africa heat, and caused harsh hot and dry weather for South/Southeast Europe.