08/18/2023, 12:14 pm EDT

Onset of +IOD Pattern Helps Maintain Dry India Climate

The India/Southeast wet monsoon failed during mid-July to mid-August. Drought is developing across southern, western, and northern India. Drought continues in Thailand, parts of Vietnam, and Southern China. Conversely, parts of China have observed heavy rain and flooding.
08/17/2023, 8:18 am EDT

Real-time Extreme Weather Forecasts Driven In-part By Warmer Than Normal Ocean

A warmer than normal southeastern Pacific propels Hilary to a major hurricane late this week and eventually excessive rains and flooding in California while tropical rains soak Florida. Away from the wet weather, extreme heat and dryness dominates the Central and Mid-south U.S.
08/16/2023, 12:25 pm EDT

Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-24: Increased Risk of SSW Events Triggering Arctic Air Generation

A mild El Nino winter is ahead. Climate forecasts consistently indicate mild Pacific influence across Canada and the Northern U.S. while an energetic storm track stretches across the Southern U.S. However, of note is the likely increased risk of sudden stratospheric warming events caused by more frequent and powerful solar flares associated with the onset of solar maxima. SSW's cause emergence of arctic air outbreaks!
08/15/2023, 8:12 am EDT

North Atlantic Tropics Beginning to Become Active

Two new tropical waves are apparent in the morning analysis. The first, located near 30W, is weak but expected to drift westward with some development possible over the next 5 days. NOAA/NHC indicates only a 10% chance of a tropical cyclone in the 3-5-day forecast. The second tropical wave, still over West Africa, is stronger with a 30% chance of tropical cyclone risk late this week.