08/22/2023, 10:12 am EDT

U.S. JUN/JUL 2023 Verification Using Constructed Analog Forecasts

Let’s take a quick look at verification of Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecasts, made in late April, for June and July 2023. A constructed analog forecast is based on regional SSTA patterns and their historical relationship to upper air patterns that drive our sensible weather.
08/21/2023, 1:39 pm EDT

El Nino Steadily Strengthening

Last week, Nino34 SSTA warmed to a robust +1.3C while waters off the northwest coast of South America (Nino12) are roasting at above 3C. Waters near the Dateline are warming although lagging the East Pacific. Upper ocean heat is plentiful across the entire equatorial Pacific.
08/21/2023, 8:38 am EDT

Tropical Disturbance 91L Becomes Weak Tropical Storm – Last Minute – Before Moving Inland South Texas Tomorrow

HRRR model indicates a tropical disturbance in the east-central Gulf of Mexico this morning moves due west today and tomorrow gradually taking on tropical characteristics and organizing to a weak tropical storm just prior to making landfall later tomorrow morning to the south of Corpus Christi, TX.
08/20/2023, 12:02 pm EDT

Strong -AAO Pattern Pushes a Brazil Coffee Freeze Risk Early Next Week

A thunderous negative phase of the Antarctic oscillation (-AAO) also referred to as Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is present in the southern hemisphere. The result is uncharacteristic deep upper troughs in the southern hemisphere middle latitudes. One of these troughs impacts South America weather.