August 2023 - Page 2 of 3 - Climate Impact Company

08/22/2023, 10:12 am EDT

U.S. JUN/JUL 2023 Verification Using Constructed Analog Forecasts

Let’s take a quick look at verification of Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecasts, made in late April, for June and July 2023. A constructed analog forecast is based on regional SSTA patterns and their historical relationship to upper air patterns that drive our sensible weather.

08/21/2023, 1:39 pm EDT

El Nino Steadily Strengthening

Last week, Nino34 SSTA warmed to a robust +1.3C while waters off the northwest coast of South America (Nino12) are roasting at above 3C. Waters near the Dateline are warming although lagging the East Pacific. Upper ocean heat is plentiful across the entire equatorial Pacific.

08/21/2023, 8:38 am EDT

Tropical Disturbance 91L Becomes Weak Tropical Storm – Last Minute – Before Moving Inland South Texas Tomorrow

HRRR model indicates a tropical disturbance in the east-central Gulf of Mexico this morning moves due west today and tomorrow gradually taking on tropical characteristics and organizing to a weak tropical storm just prior to making landfall later tomorrow morning to the south of Corpus Christi, TX.

08/20/2023, 12:02 pm EDT

Strong -AAO Pattern Pushes a Brazil Coffee Freeze Risk Early Next Week

A thunderous negative phase of the Antarctic oscillation (-AAO) also referred to as Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is present in the southern hemisphere. The result is uncharacteristic deep upper troughs in the southern hemisphere middle latitudes. One of these troughs impacts South America weather.

08/18/2023, 12:14 pm EDT

Onset of +IOD Pattern Helps Maintain Dry India Climate

The India/Southeast wet monsoon failed during mid-July to mid-August. Drought is developing across southern, western, and northern India. Drought continues in Thailand, parts of Vietnam, and Southern China. Conversely, parts of China have observed heavy rain and flooding.

08/17/2023, 8:18 am EDT

Real-time Extreme Weather Forecasts Driven In-part By Warmer Than Normal Ocean

A warmer than normal southeastern Pacific propels Hilary to a major hurricane late this week and eventually excessive rains and flooding in California while tropical rains soak Florida. Away from the wet weather, extreme heat and dryness dominates the Central and Mid-south U.S.

08/16/2023, 12:25 pm EDT

Northern Hemisphere Winter 2023-24: Increased Risk of SSW Events Triggering Arctic Air Generation

A mild El Nino winter is ahead. Climate forecasts consistently indicate mild Pacific influence across Canada and the Northern U.S. while an energetic storm track stretches across the Southern U.S. However, of note is the likely increased risk of sudden stratospheric warming events caused by more frequent and powerful solar flares associated with the onset of solar maxima. SSW's cause emergence of arctic air outbreaks!

08/15/2023, 8:12 am EDT

North Atlantic Tropics Beginning to Become Active

Two new tropical waves are apparent in the morning analysis. The first, located near 30W, is weak but expected to drift westward with some development possible over the next 5 days. NOAA/NHC indicates only a 10% chance of a tropical cyclone in the 3-5-day forecast. The second tropical wave, still over West Africa, is stronger with a 30% chance of tropical cyclone risk late this week.

08/15/2023, 8:09 am EDT

Marine Heat Waves Remain Dominant, Influence El Nino 2023-24

In the North Pacific, an immense MHW has strengthened across the northwest basin. Similarly, MHW NEP23A in the northeast Pacific has strengthened and shifted to the northwest coast of North America. In the North Atlantic basin, the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) recently shifted to coastal West Europe. However, the rapid development of a MHW off Newfoundland during late spring is now weakening quickly. The MHW off northwest Africa extending to the western Mediterranean Sea has weakened slightly.

08/13/2023, 3:41 pm EDT

More Wild Weather Second Half of August in U.S.

While extreme heat shifts northward, another major issue is potential for excessive flooding rainfall across the Interior West and Southwest U.S. including California. An upper trough entraining a tropical cyclone early in the 6-10-day period causes a long duration period of wet weather covering much of the West. Flash flood risk is highest in Southern California, the Southwest Desert, and the Great Basin!

08/11/2023, 11:59 am EDT

ERCOT Heat to Become Less Intense: PJM-West Heat Spike Possible

Possibly due to seasonality, a transition toward a climate pattern with greater influence from the tropics, the far Southern U.S. including the Gulf States and particularly Texas are forecast to lose their tendency for extreme heat or produce a choppy not pattern as indicated with the SERC 15-day outlook.

08/11/2023, 8:07 am EDT

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Season Scorecard

Forecast factors suggest the bulk of this year’s activity occurs in a 7-week period from late August to early October. Most of the tropical cyclone activity projected for 2023 (by NOAA, CSU, TSR, and CIC) should occur during this time.