Idalia has realized the potential energy produced by 87F/31C ocean water temperatures and intensified rapidly to a 940 MB category-4 major hurricane this morning. Additional intensification is likely before landfall along coastal Taylor County around 8AM this morning. NOAA/NHC has increased their storm surge forecast to 12-16 feet near and east of the landfall location.

During the past week extreme rains have caused massive evacuations in China due to flash flooding and swollen rivers. Much of the China wheat, soybean, and corn areas have been hit hard by heavy rain. The upper-level low pressure trough during the past week has lodged itself over Northeast China located in-between an amplified upper ridge over Northern Japan in response to a large marine heat wave in that vicinity and an upper ridge which has defeated the Indian Monsoon.

In the Climate Impact Company Sunday Report, the latest information on TD 10 reveals an evolving system likely to become a tropical storm soon. The record warm northeast Gulf of Mexico surface water indicates potential for an over-achieving storm once reaching that zone. HMON/HWRF hurricane forecast models each indicate 950-953 MB category-3 major hurricane prior to a northwest coast of Florida landfall early on Wednesday.