06/18/2026, 6:05 am EDT
Forecast models continue to make the case for developing and intensifying drought across much of Europe given continued hot and mostly dry 15-day forecasts and 16-30-day projections.
News
06/17/2026, 8:41 am EDT
NOAA/NHC indicates a brief upgrade to a tropical storm (Arthur) before moving inland this evening. Tropical cyclone models generally doubt tropical storm intensity. A large area of extreme rain is located east of the depression shifting north and northeast to bring heavy rains to the Gulf States/Southeast U.S. the next 2-3 days.
06/17/2026, 4:17 am EDT
Positive phase of the East Atlantic/Western Russia (+EAWR) index is present when an amplified upper-level high pressure ridge emerges over Europe compensated for by a downstream upper trough near the Caspian Sea while a deep trough resides over the North Atlantic and a second high pressure area forms over Northeast China. Another related trough forms over the Midwest U.S. during the +EAWR regime.
06/16/2026, 8:55 am EDT
Low pressure area (90L) in Southern Texas will shift northeastward and organize into a center, likely a tropical depression, by 7AM EDT tomorrow of the central Texas Coast. Water temperatures are supportive (83F). Following ECMWF which takes this system northeast-to-north into Galveston Bay tomorrow evening. NOAA/NHC indicates 60% chance of an upgrade to a tropical storm (Arthur) while offshore and prior to reaching Galveston Bay. Forecast models indicate most of the attendant weather, as this system organizes, is east of the storm center.