News
06/02/2026, 7:45 am EDT

Mid-June U.S. Pattern Change

The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) shifts across the warm eastern equatorial Pacific during the next 1-2 weeks. U.S. climatology during an MJO phase_7 to phase_8 transition favors a cooler East U.S. regime. Although not super confident, the most likely (ECM ENS mega-cluster ensemble) upper air pattern in 15 days is a new upper trough centered on Ontario to deliver cooler weather into the East U.S.
06/02/2026, 7:42 am EDT

North Atlantic Basin 2026 Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook UPDATE: Seasonal Activity Lowers; U.S. Coastal Risk Increases

The updated Climate Impact Company 2026 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season activity forecast lowers amount previously indicated in early April from 13 to 11 tropical storms while maintaining 5 hurricanes and lowering from 3 to 2 the amounts of intense hurricanes. The accumulated cyclone energy forecast lowers sharply from 98 to 73. However, the projected hurricane tracks indicate two potential land-falling systems in the Gulf of Mexico and another into the North Carolina Coast. The seasonal activity lowers but the danger to the U.S. Coast increases.
06/01/2026, 9:07 am EDT

+ABNA Index Dominates North America Climate Signals

The Asia/Bering Sea/North America (ABNA) index remains very positive and is the lead climate signal influence on the North America upper air pattern for the first half of June. The +ABNA regime is present when a strong trough is near the Bering Sea and compensated for by an upper ridge over East-central North America.