Traditional measurements of ENSO phase indicated El Nino onset during early Q2/2026. However, the new relative operational Nino index (RONI) is (now) used to determine ENSO strength and forecasts. Using RONI, NOAA identifies the presence of El Nino beginning in June. Dynamic models continue to forecast a potential record strength oceanic El Nino likely due to the immense upper ocean heat rivaling the 1997-98 El Nino as most intense on record. However, using a RONI analog, the ENSO climate may be less impressive and is followed by La Nina returning next year.