Over the next few weeks, a climate pattern change featuring departing low pressure across Canada departing and being replaced by high pressure while low pressure tendency increases in the subtropical latitudes. The beginning of that pattern appears in the week 2-4 outlook. During the outlook, the U.S. loses the tendency for unusually warm weather and turns wetter while Canada shifts milder.

The outlook for week-2 ahead features heavy rain across much of Central Brazil to Northwest Argentina while Southeast Brazil is dry and hot. The wet weather moves into Northeast Brazil late month. In early May, Brazil shifts drier while wet weather regenerates in Argentina.

Semi-permanent high pressure associated with the record strength and intensifying marine heatwave (MHW) off the California and Baja California Coast maintains the record warmth across much of the West and Southwest U.S. during March. Near record warmth was observed across the Central and East U.S.

The southeast quadrant of the U.S. daily soil moisture rankings observations reveals historically dry conditions. As the warm season approaches, large regions of dry soil have increasing risk of extreme heat which can worsen drought.

Tropical forcing on the prevailing climate across North America increases during April. The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) increases strength dramatically as the middle third of April arrives. The MJO shifts toward and across the Dateline during this time. In the extended range, ECMWF maintains the MJO intensity and indicates a progressive character shifting eastward through the tropical longitudes of the Americas to West Africa by early May.

The initial North Atlantic basin seasonal activity forecast for the North Atlantic basin by Climate Impact Company is issued. The forecast is updated in late May as the onset of tropical cyclone season arrives and again near August 1st when the onset of highest seasonal activity arrives. The forecast projects 13 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. An El Nino episode develops during the tropical cyclone season inhibiting development and 2026 is the second least busy year during the 2016-2025 active period.