January 2026 - Page 2 of 13 - Climate Impact Company

News

01/28/2026, 9:07 am EST

-AO Sustains Northern Europe Cold and Energetic Southern Europe Storm Track

Well-documented is the cold influence on North America and Eurasia climate by an ongoing intense negative arctic oscillation (-AO). Additionally, -AO has inspired a vigorous Southern Europe storm track most recently associated with Winter Storm “Kristin” and effects on Portugal and Spain. -AO continues well into February maintaining the energetic Southern Europe storm track.

01/28/2026, 8:09 am EST

Extreme Heat Continues Southeast Australia; Temporary Break Early Next Week, Hot Again Days 11-15

Record heat in New South Wales and Victoria is ongoing this week. A temporary break in the heat for the Southeast Coast is projected for early-to-middle next week while extreme heat shifts north to Queensland. In the 11-15-day forecast, GFS indicates the extreme heat returns to Southeast Australia.

01/28/2026, 5:04 am EST

The “Caveat” Forecast…A Case for Regenerating Cold

The 30-day AO index (Jan. 21-Feb. 19) is projected -3.6 based on recent observations and projections for the 30-day period. The AO index of -3.6 is exceeded only twice as a monthly average in the 1950-2026 climatology: -4.3 (FEB-2010) and -3.8 (JAN-1977). Ongoing -AO (and strengthening -NAO) suggest the current extreme cold may break temporarily and then return.

01/26/2026, 3:59 pm EST

Active East Pacific MJO + -AO/-NAO = Atlantic Coast Weekend Snowstorm

The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) remains active in the East Pacific as identified by tropical convection near the equator and a streak of energy associated with the subtropical jet stream pointed at Baja California. Given presence of negative arctic oscillation (-AO) and negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) coupled with the active MJO, the emerging coastal storm indicated by the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECM have excellent support.