An impactful influence on global climate by a strengthening convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast to develop during the next 2 weeks. The location across the tropical Pacific from north-northeast of Australia to just east of the Dateline (phase_6).

The last pulse of convection phase Madden Julian oscillation (+MJO) was observed during November across the eastern tropical Indian Ocean to north of Australia. The event was immense, causing many late season tropical cyclones, and eventually a latent heat release poleward to the polar stratosphere. In December, the warming stratosphere shifted over Canada igniting an arctic outbreak. Since that time, MJO has been dormant. However, in a forecast change, the 2-week MJO forecast utilizing all models indicates a moderate intensity phase_6 of the +MJO develops which will cause several important impacts on weather and climate.