January 2024 - Page 2 of 4 - Climate Impact Company

01/21/2024, 11:40 am EST

Madden Julian Oscillation Inspires Atmospheric River Storm Track To Develop

What is an atmospheric river? A large and narrow stream of high intensity moisture extending from tropical influences pushed by the jet stream across mid-latitude land masses. The North Pacific atmospheric river is the most famous (and effective). What causes an atmospheric river to form? The best way to create an atmospheric river is the phasing (or connection) between the storm track propelled by the subtropical jet stream and increased heavy convection in the deep tropics enhanced by presence of large areas of strong vertical currents known as the positive (or convection) phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO).

01/18/2024, 8:45 am EST

MJO Inspires Widening Western Desert Heat in Australia; Dangerous Tropical Systems Appear

Strong convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation north of Australia inspires heavy rain in Northern Australia and tropical risks for both northwestern Australia and Queensland while the western desert heat expands eastward to Queensland and New South Wales.

01/17/2024, 8:03 pm EST

Subsurface Equatorial Pacific Cooling Underway as El Nino 2023-24 Likely Moving Past Mature Stage Soon

El Nino 2023-24 roars on but signs of weakening ahead have emerged. Cooling subsurface waters in the West Pacific have shifted east of the Dateline during January. Warm waters just beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific to sustain El Nino remain, but the emerging cool waters are likely to expand and weaken/dissipate Pacific surface warming over the next several months. Expect neutral ENSO during Q2/2024 and La Nina by Q3/2024.

01/16/2024, 3:57 pm EST

U.S. Cold Peak Was Monday January 15th Followed Closely by Saturday January 20th

The second burst of arctic air projected for late this week in the U.S. is trending colder. The U.S. gas weighted HDD forecast indicates a second peak for the January 2024 cold episode occurring on Saturday. The second cold peak is just short of the amplitude of yesterday’s peak cold.

01/16/2024, 2:25 pm EST

A Check on Europe HDD Forecasts

Despite the presence of arctic air across Eurasia during the first half of the winter season, most Central and South Europe cities observed a warm start to winter shifting colder in January. The chilly first half of January reverses warmer in the last third of the month forecast.

01/14/2024, 7:54 pm EST

Madden Julian Oscillation To Intensify

NOAA/CPC indicates an emerging and very intense convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) pushing across Maritime Continent over the next week or so and into the tropical West Pacific (phase_6) by January 23-24. During MJO P5 and P6 the mid-latitude Pacific jet stream strengthens and increases mild maritime influence on the North America and Europe climate.

01/14/2024, 7:06 am EST

Freezing Rain/Icing A Larger Concern for Texas/Louisiana

The polar front has stalled on the Texas Coast with an area of low pressure forming off the South Texas Coast. A mild marine easterly flow off the Gulf is induced and slows the southward progress of the arctic front. Consequently, a large area of freezing rain causing an ice accretion is likely in central and eastern Texas shifting into Louisiana for later today and through tonight.

01/13/2024, 6:28 am EST

The Latest on U.S. Winter Storm “Gerri”

"Bomb cyclones" and following frigid arctic air warrant a winter storm name "Gerri". A trail of El Nino storms producing near or less than 980 MB low pressure systems continues. The latest super storm is over the eastern Great Lakes with attendant storminess producing more flooding rains with high wind in the Northeast States while blizzard conditions from the Midwest to the Great Lakes persist. Wind chill warnings are posted by NOAA for the Great Plains as a following arctic air mass is poised to release into the U.S.

01/12/2024, 9:00 am EST

All 50 States Have Weather Hazards; Northeast U.S. Snowstorm Next Tuesday

A rare occurrence! All 50 states have weather watch, warning, or advisories in effect. Another heavy rain/high wind event into the East heading into the weekend. However, by next Tuesday, the Northeast U.S. Corridor is looking at a moderate snowstorm including coastal areas.

01/12/2024, 8:53 am EST

Glance At 15-Day Temperature Forecasts for U.S. Energy Regions

A glance at U.S. energy regions for system temperature utilizing all operational models through the next 15 days to best identify days of highest impact related to extreme cold. Spiking cold is shown farther south (ERCOT) while long duration cold is shown for the Central/East-central U.S. (PJM-W and MISO).

01/11/2024, 5:12 pm EST

Wet Climate in Panama May Wait Until Q4/2024

The drought adversely affecting shipping the Panama Canal region continues. The drought is linked to the El Nino of 2023-24. Until El Nino reverses to La Nina, the dryness in Panama is likely to continue or rain that does occur is not enough to ease the drought.

01/11/2024, 12:43 pm EST

Shock Cold Next Week and Following Week Based on Today’s 12Z GFS

The 12Z GFS projects a cold medium-range forecast that is stronger and longer than the FEB-21 “Uri” event. Support for the cold is singularly generated by the GFS model. The 6-10-day forecast frigid forecast trends much colder into Texas. The 11-15-day forecast is expected to moderate due to mild Pacific influence. However, the GFS doubts that possibility and generates a much colder 11-15-day forecast at midday. The 12Z GFS generates a whopping 281.5 HDD for Jan. 19-25 which is about 10 HDD colder than the “Uri” event Feb. 12-18, 2021.