The southeast quadrant of the U.S. daily soil moisture rankings observations reveals historically dry conditions. As the warm season approaches, large regions of dry soil have increasing risk of extreme heat which can worsen drought.

Tropical forcing on the prevailing climate across North America increases during April. The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) increases strength dramatically as the middle third of April arrives. The MJO shifts toward and across the Dateline during this time. In the extended range, ECMWF maintains the MJO intensity and indicates a progressive character shifting eastward through the tropical longitudes of the Americas to West Africa by early May.

The initial North Atlantic basin seasonal activity forecast for the North Atlantic basin by Climate Impact Company is issued. The forecast is updated in late May as the onset of tropical cyclone season arrives and again near August 1st when the onset of highest seasonal activity arrives. The forecast projects 13 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. An El Nino episode develops during the tropical cyclone season inhibiting development and 2026 is the second least busy year during the 2016-2025 active period.