12/11/2025, 8:29 am EST
Wet weather continues to emerge and intensify across Brazil. The rainfall is making a difference in soil moisture as East Brazil loses their wet signature. Additional heavy to excessive rainfall is on the way!
News
12/10/2025, 11:56 am EST
The DEC-25 U.S. gas population weight HDD is revised colder to 949, the coldest DEC since 2010 and 3rd coldest of this century. Previously, cold JAN-26 forecasts reversed warmer with mid-NOV updates and then colder with the early DEC projection. Operational models are shifting much warmer for JAN-26 therefore a warmer revision is necessary. The JAN-26 HDD forecast warms from 981 to 947 which ranks 13th coldest of 2020-25.
12/10/2025, 7:09 am EST
The general lack of precipitation of the past month (except Indonesia) may be a contributor to a wet bias of operational and AI 15-day forecasts for North and South America plus Europe. The ECM ENS is characteristic of all operational forecast models producing a wet forecast bias in 15-day outlooks for the past 30 days for the Americas. AI models have a similar common problem as demonstrated by AIFS ENS for Europe.
12/10/2025, 3:38 am EST
The wet weather pattern has shifted to Brazil during early December. Heavy rain was observed across Northern Chile to northwestern Argentina during the past week. The 10-day outlook equally combining GFS and ECM reveals wet weather shifts to Paraguay and eastward. Recently developed dryness in Argentina continues.