The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for weeks 4-6 ahead continue to favor a mild climate, especially in the East. The consensus of operational models are trending colder, near the 10-year normal, for the week ending January 8th. So…operational models are pointing toward a colder regime whereas “weeklies” ignore that shift to maintain the warmth. Two AI models are cold in the 3-4-week period.

The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook is updated. The forecast indicates drought expansion for much of the South U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic region. Drought erosion or dissipation is projected for the Interior Northwest and Midwest/Mid-South U.S.

The stratospheric warming event of mid-November to mid-December is dissipating. The warming event took place on the American side of the North Pole and spawned a polar vortex in North America causing the early meteorological winter 2025-26 arctic outbreak across the eastern states. Forecast models indicate the cold stratosphere across Eurasia expands cross-polar into North America later this month.