News
07/02/2025, 5:51 am EDT
A map of the world AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Marine Heatwaves and the June 2025 Northern Hemisphere Climate

Neutral or weak ENSO events do not imply low skill climate forecasts. Recognizing the new mid-latitude (mostly warm) SSTA regimes can not only foreshadow climate patterns ahead but also recognize the potential for extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts, and flooding rainfall episodes.
07/01/2025, 9:48 am EDT
A map of the united states with rain and flood warning AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Excessive Rainfall/Flooding Mid-Atlantic Today

NOAA/SPC projects strong thunderstorms across the East and Southeast U.S. for today. Included is a severe weather risk caused by damaging wind potential in Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. The event is lengthy, mid-afternoon to midnight, therefore repeat events can cause excessive rain and flooding most likely in the Washington/Baltimore area.
07/01/2025, 5:40 am EDT
A graph of different colored lines AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Remains Marginally Warm in June

Regarding ENSO, the equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat anomalies stay marginally warm in JUN-25. Implied is no risk of La Nina return, although NCEP CFS V2 is boldly forecasting La Nina for late 2025, with marginal support pointed toward El Nino.
07/01/2025, 5:27 am EDT
A map of the weather AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Australia Week 2-4 Outlook: Comparing ECM and AI Temperature Forecasts

An interesting comparison between ECM "weeklies" and the AI GFS ENS 2-4-week temperature anomaly forecast for Australia whereas there is agreement on the upper air pattern (which supports increasing risk of cold in July) and AI GFS ENS offers the cold while ECM "weeklies" doubts the cold risk.