The persistent high-pressure area over Europe producing hot and dry weather during meteorological summer so far is associated with the North Atlantic SSTA pattern featuring a vivid North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) south of Greenland and marine heat waves (MHW) west of Europe and across the Mediterranean Sea. As mid-summer arrives, persistence begins to shift causing a pattern change for Europe for the second half of July.

Many hazards are affecting the U.S. this afternoon. Once again, the recent historic flooding event in Central Texas is once again struck by heavy rains and a Flash Flood Warning is in effect. Flood Watch areas are in effect from Southwest Texas to eastern Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and the Interior Mid-Atlantic.

A broad and steadily strengthening upper trough south of Australia gradually extends a vigorous storm track northward into southern continent followed by chilly air generation leading to <32F risk in Southeast Australia and parts of southwest continent.

The first month of meteorological summer 2025 was 7th warmest on record across the U.S. MUCH ABOVE normal temperature was observed in 19 states, essentially the West U.S., Northeast States, and Florida. Rhode Island observed their 2nd hottest June on record while West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware ranked in the top five all-time warmest.

During the past 30 days, the percent normal rainfall across Europe has become prohibitively dry. Consequently, soil moisture deficits have broadened and intensified. The anomalous temperature was extremely hot (3-7F) for west and south portions of Europe during the past 30 days helping to accelerate drought.