While the national CDD projection for summer 2023 is not as hot as the past 3 summer seasons due to lack of heat especially during the first half of summer in the California and Northeast Markets, the ERCOT CDD forecast is trending hotter!
The U.S. population weight CDD forecast for the 2023 warm season (MAY-SEP) is adjusted slightly cooler as in general areas at risk of hot weather re generally not high demand electricity areas (except Texas). The 2023 forecast is markedly less warm than the past 3 years.
Rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is increasing dramatically across the eastern half of the U.S. Additionally, Northern California rainfall deficits have redeveloped quickly.
The developing and steady wet trade wind regime in the tropics is inspired in-part by what is likely to be the warmest SSTA pattern on record for the main development region (MDR) for North Atlantic hurricanes as defined by the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index.