06/19/2023, 3:58 pm EDT

Two Tropical Cyclones Ahead In Central North Atlantic Tropics

Tropical cyclone formation in the central North Atlantic tropics during June is unusual. The catalyst this year is a favorable low shear environment and enhanced early season inter-tropical-convergence-zone (ITCZ) enables by much warmer than normal SSTA.
06/19/2023, 10:12 am EDT

Midwest/Southeast U.S. Micro-climate Forming?

The Midwest States have dried-out rapidly as D2/D3 drought has developed. Meanwhile, wet soil moisture trend in the Southeast U.S. is accelerating due to the recent heavy rainfall. The latest 15-day forecast maintains soaking rains in the Southeast States expanding northward throughout the East while the Midwest stays dry.
06/18/2023, 5:48 pm EDT

Focus On U.S. Corn Belt Drought

Discussions and photos of AG Belt soil moisture conditions, especially in Illinois, worse than conveyed by data. Rainfall deficits are in the 3-6/6-9 in. range across the Ohio Valley. A new analysis produced by NOAA is issued tomorrow and increasing rainfall deficits expected.
06/16/2023, 9:28 am EDT

Mid-Troposphere Wet RH Favors Tropical Development

Although a couple days old, the clear trend of relative humidity anomalies in the mid-troposphere is wetter east of the Bahamas to the central North Atlantic subtropics plus across the central and eastern North Atlantic tropics. In this zone, any tropical feature is likely to develop given ample mid-tropospheric moisture.