News
09/21/2025, 9:30 am EDT
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Westerly Flow Aloft Defeating Western North Atlantic Basin TC Risk

Since mid-August, an upper trough settled over the East U.S. propelling upper-level westerly flow across the Gulf of Mexico extending to Cuba. The shearing westerly flow aloft has helped to keep this zone dry in the middle troposphere and produced an environment hostile to tropical development. The ECM ENS 500 MB anomaly forecast maintains the shearing westerlies across the Gulf of Mexico.
09/19/2025, 9:10 am EDT
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2025 Challenging 3 Other Years Since 1995 For Least Active TC Seasaon?

The long-term warm cycle of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (+AMO) began in the middle 1990’s. During 1995-2024, seasonal activity increased dramatically compared to long-term averages. However, in 2025, seasonal activity (assuming Gabrielle reaches hurricane strength) is one of the lowest amounts for late September in the 30-year climatology. The least total amount of hurricanes observed since 1995 was 2 in 2013 and 3 in 1997 and 2009.
09/18/2025, 8:29 am EDT
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U.S. Gas Population Weight Winter 2025-26 HDD Forecast

The Climate Impact Company gas population weight HDD forecast for the 2025-26 heating season is updated and official. The new forecast is based on the just-issued U.S. month 1-6 climate forecast valid through next March. The adjusted outlook features 5 analogs for each month of the heating season helping to visually identify forecast confidence.
09/17/2025, 9:50 am EDT
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Could Gabrielle Cause High Latitude Block by Early October?

The heat release of Gabrielle into the higher latitudes could cause an amplified blocking high pressure over Greenland in 2 weeks as supported by the negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) forecast suggesting a weather pattern change for both North America and Europe.