September 2025 - Page 7 of 11 - Climate Impact Company

News

09/15/2025, 11:45 am EDT

A graph with red and blue lines AI-generated content may be incorrect.

09/15/2025, 11:45 am EDT

Flip to El Nino in 2026 Increasingly Confident

Emergence of the marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific potentially increases the risk of El Nino in 2026 as the anomalous warm water spreads to the tropics. The NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast continues to edge into El Nino territory Q2/2026. The change in ENSO will be applied to new season 1-4 ahead forecasts. The upcoming La Nina is a relatively short duration episode.

09/15/2025, 11:41 am EDT

A map of the north and south america AI-generated content may be incorrect.

09/15/2025, 11:41 am EDT

92L Likely to Develop, Stay Out-to-Sea; Comments on the 2013 TC Season (and Following Winter)

A tropical disturbance in the east-central North Atlantic basin is developing. A tropical cyclone is likely by midweek. Upper shear northwest of this system may slow significant development. This system will stay well out to sea. Otherwise, no significant tropical cyclone risks exist in the 10-day outlook.

09/15/2025, 5:04 am EDT

A graph showing the temperature and the temperature of the year AI-generated content may be incorrect.

09/15/2025, 5:04 am EDT

Initial 2025-26 U.S. Heating Season Gas Population Weight HDD Forecast

The preliminary U.S. winter 2025-26 gas population weight heating degree day forecast is issued. The outlook indicates near the 30-year normal HDD for November, somewhat warmer than normal December, shifting colder than normal mid-to-late winter, and a mild March. Due to the presence of a strong marine heatwave (MHW) in the Northeast Pacific combined with a stronger than normal North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) south of Greenland, the risk of an “Alaskan ridge bridge” and compensating downstream polar vortex over Central Canada increases for JAN/FEB 2026 if the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns present now persists through meteorological winter.

09/12/2025, 8:42 am EDT

Has the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Flipped to Positive Phase?

Merging between marine heatwave (MHW) NEP25A and NEP25B occurred during late AUG/early SEP as exceptionally warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) reached the West Coast of North America in the Northeast Pacific. The warming water surface episode is similar with the previously strongest warming event observed during 2013-16, commonly referred to as the “warm blob”.