The North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is exceptionally strong during summer 2025 well-correlated to a semi-permanent upper-level trough across the same area recently budging eastward toward Europe the first half of September. Proximity of the trough to Europe has spawned heavy rains for late calendar-summer. The ECM ENS 10-day rainfall forecast indicates the emphasis of the heavy rain consolidates over France and vicinity.

In North America, the late summer 2025 weather pattern forecasts were most effective during the 6-10-day utilizing ECM ENS, traditionally the best operational model. In second place, AIFS ENS continued to score well since the July 1st debut. ECM ENS and AIFS ENS have routinely scored no. 1 and 2 for medium-range forecasts during mid-to-late calendar summer 2025.