Prior to the solar cycle 25 peak, forecasts made claimed a potential weak minimum similar with the last solar peak may occur which would set-up the possibility of a Dalton Minimum (3 consecutive solar minimum last observed 1800-1830 when the planet cooled slightly). Other forecasters projected an all-time record strength solar cycle maximum peak. Verification reveals peak was somewhere in-between.

A strong stratospheric warming (SW) episode emerged over the weekend across Antarctica. 15-day forecasts maintain the event. The SW event is contributing to strong negative global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM). Stratospheric warming events over Antarctica have less predictable influence on the southern hemisphere continental weather due to the moderating influence of the maritime climate.

The Brazil Drought continues to intensify. This week, 1-2 inches of rain is likely across the dry zone. However, dryness roars back next week and into October as the drought pattern in East-central/East Brazil continues.