September 2025 - Page 4 of 4 - Climate Impact Company

09/04/2025, 5:08 am EDT

A map of the world AI-generated content may be incorrect.

09/04/2025, 5:08 am EDT

AG Market Hot Spot: South America Update

The best analog suggests that a developing weak La Nina favors ongoing dryness in Brazil during spring reversing wetter once summer arrives. Implied is the torrid Brazil drought worsens during spring with some relief into the new year. In the short-term, dry weather prevails in Brazil through 10 days. However, models are indicating a wetter change for the 11-15-day period carrying into the 16-30-day timeframe.

09/04/2025, 5:03 am EDT

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09/04/2025, 5:03 am EDT

Subsurface Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies Dictate IOD/ENSO Ahead

The subsurface equatorial upper ocean heat profile foreshadows phase change of various modes of climate variability. In the Indian Ocean, the eastern portion of the equatorial region has warmed significantly (Fig. 1). Implied is evolution of a potentially strong negative phase of the Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD). The daily IOD index is robust -1.04. The -IOD regime has arrived. In the equatorial Pacific, the eastern portion has cooled significantly. Implied is an approaching La Nina episode.

09/03/2025, 1:28 pm EDT

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09/03/2025, 1:28 pm EDT

NOAA September Wildland Fires: Rare New England Risk, Widespread California Risk, and All Hawaii Risk

NOAA reissues their significant wildland fire potential outlook for September and October. Not surprising is the rapid risk increase for many parts of Central and Southern California plus all Northern California. The above average risk extends to Northern Nevada and Southwest Idaho. Added is the western portion of Washington. Wildland fire potential risk is above average near many major city and town locations for Western Washington and California.

09/03/2025, 6:02 am EDT

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09/03/2025, 6:02 am EDT

-IOD/La Nina Inspired Wet Climate Ahead for Australia

The Indian Ocean Dipole has shifted to negative phase and a borderline La Nina is developing. The last time -IOD and La Nina were present during SEP/OCT was in 2022 when buckets of rain fell on the East/Southeast! Be aware of potential over-achieving rains in the East for spring 2025! The AI Graph Cast week 2-4 outlook reveals the upcoming wet pattern for East Australia.

09/03/2025, 5:01 am EDT

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09/03/2025, 5:01 am EDT

High Pressure in Subtropics Suppressing TC Development for Western North Atlantic Basin

The culprit to North Atlantic tropical cyclone development is too much dry air promoted by a strong subtropical high pressure stretched across the North Atlantic basin whereas the 2020-24 climatology produced low pressure in the tropical/subtropical North Atlantic due to presence of tropical cyclones.

09/02/2025, 2:46 pm EDT

Overall, North Atlantic Cooler Than Recent Summer Seasons; But Gulf/Caribbean/MDR Very Warm!

The North Atlantic basin SSTA is +0.28C which is quite cool compared to other years this decade. The 1-year change is -0.53C which is very impressive. However, there are basins which are very warm and capable of contributing to over-achieving tropical cyclones and their intensity. The Gulf of Mexico is near record warm (+0.90C) which is steady during the past 2 weeks. The Caribbean Sea is also very warm and unchanged during the past 2 weeks.

09/02/2025, 9:28 am EDT

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09/02/2025, 9:28 am EDT

Slowly, Equatorial Pacific Subsurface Cools

The equatorial Pacific Ocean upper-ocean heat is slowly cooling. The cooling trend, if continued, supports a return of La Nina for quarter 4/2025. The Nino34 SSTA is close to the La Nina threshold while the Nino3 SSTA has shifted to La Nina phase.

09/01/2025, 9:10 am EDT

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09/01/2025, 9:10 am EDT

U.S. CDD’s Crash in August!

The official U.S. population weight CDD for August 2025 from NOAA will be published in a few days. Climate Impact Company (CIC) projects 272 CDD for August which is cooler than the 30-year normal (290 CDD) and much cooler than the 10-year normal (332 CDD). The NOAA assessment is (more) likely cooler than the CIC estimate. The AUG-25 CDD total is 2nd coolest (for AUG) this century trailing only 2004 (254 CDD).