Prior to the solar cycle 25 peak, forecasts made claimed a potential weak minimum similar with the last solar peak may occur which would set-up the possibility of a Dalton Minimum (3 consecutive solar minimum last observed 1800-1830 when the planet cooled slightly). Other forecasters projected an all-time record strength solar cycle maximum peak. Verification reveals peak was somewhere in-between.

A strong stratospheric warming (SW) episode emerged over the weekend across Antarctica. 15-day forecasts maintain the event. The SW event is contributing to strong negative global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM). Stratospheric warming events over Antarctica have less predictable influence on the southern hemisphere continental weather due to the moderating influence of the maritime climate.

The Brazil Drought continues to intensify. This week, 1-2 inches of rain is likely across the dry zone. However, dryness roars back next week and into October as the drought pattern in East-central/East Brazil continues.

The long-term warm cycle of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (+AMO) began in the middle 1990’s. During 1995-2024, seasonal activity increased dramatically compared to long-term averages. However, in 2025, seasonal activity (assuming Gabrielle reaches hurricane strength) is one of the lowest amounts for late September in the 30-year climatology. The least total amount of hurricanes observed since 1995 was 2 in 2013 and 3 in 1997 and 2009.

The heat release of Gabrielle into the higher latitudes could cause an amplified blocking high pressure over Greenland in 2 weeks as supported by the negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) forecast suggesting a weather pattern change for both North America and Europe.

ECM “weeklies” reign number one predicting the 500 MB height pattern across North America for the week 2-4 outlook during the past 30 days.