During January, a subsurface warm Kelvin Wave shifted across the equatorial East Pacific recently reaching the northwest coast of South America. The Nino12 region off the northwest coast of South America warmed 1.1C during the past 30 days. The majority of global SSTA forecast models are forecasting El Nino onset during northern hemisphere spring. The onset of that ENSO change has occurred and may have contributed to the sensible weather pattern change across North America as mid-February approaches.