Utilizing all operational models, forecasts are agreeable to the decelerating warm pattern to near the 10-year normal for next week. In the Jan. 2-8 period, forecast models vary widely from a milder national scenario (GFS ENS/GFS) to much colder than normal (CMC ENS/ECM). The just released GFS was near the overnight consensus.

Natural gas prices spiked to $5.46 on December 5th anticipating a frigid East U.S. 6-10-day period. Arctic air was widespread across most of the eastern half of the U.S. The PJM System (Chicago to Washington) average temperature was a frigid 18F on December 14-15. Typical of arctic air presence when snow cover is minimal, a following warm-up is easier to generate. By December 18th the high populace PJM sector warmed above normal.