A strong stratospheric warming (SW) episode emerged over the weekend across Antarctica. 15-day forecasts maintain the event. The SW event is contributing to strong negative global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM). Stratospheric warming events over Antarctica have less predictable influence on the southern hemisphere continental weather due to the moderating influence of the maritime climate.

The Brazil Drought continues to intensify. This week, 1-2 inches of rain is likely across the dry zone. However, dryness roars back next week and into October as the drought pattern in East-central/East Brazil continues.

The long-term warm cycle of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (+AMO) began in the middle 1990’s. During 1995-2024, seasonal activity increased dramatically compared to long-term averages. However, in 2025, seasonal activity (assuming Gabrielle reaches hurricane strength) is one of the lowest amounts for late September in the 30-year climatology. The least total amount of hurricanes observed since 1995 was 2 in 2013 and 3 in 1997 and 2009.