The North Atlantic basin SSTA is +0.28C which is quite cool compared to other years this decade. The 1-year change is -0.53C which is very impressive. However, there are basins which are very warm and capable of contributing to over-achieving tropical cyclones and their intensity. The Gulf of Mexico is near record warm (+0.90C) which is steady during the past 2 weeks. The Caribbean Sea is also very warm and unchanged during the past 2 weeks.

The official U.S. population weight CDD for August 2025 from NOAA will be published in a few days. Climate Impact Company (CIC) projects 272 CDD for August which is cooler than the 30-year normal (290 CDD) and much cooler than the 10-year normal (332 CDD). The NOAA assessment is (more) likely cooler than the CIC estimate. The AUG-25 CDD total is 2nd coolest (for AUG) this century trailing only 2004 (254 CDD).