Erin has significantly cooled the ocean surface east of the Bahamas. SST in the core of the cooler zone are 80-81F, below the threshold to sustain a tropical cyclone. The 7-day SST change in near 2.5C due east of the Bahamas. To the north of Puerto Rico, north of 25N, the SST are somewhat warmer than normal which explains the potential hurricane intensity of tropical cyclone models for 90L.

The soil moisture conditions across cocoa-growing zones of West Africa are in drought for the southern portion. A wet climate and attendant soil conditions are not far to the north but likely to stay north of coastal West Africa.