08/19/2025, 3:54 pm EDT
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08/19/2025, 3:54 pm EDT

Expecting TC Activity Each of the Next 4 Weeks

The tropics become busier producing a tropical cyclone risk each of the next 4 weeks including more than one event in at least 2 of 4 weeks. The Gulf of Mexico should become more active during the period. Peak of season is around September 10th!
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08/19/2025, 12:26 pm EDT
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08/19/2025, 12:26 pm EDT

Explaining Why “Weeklies” Performed Temperature Forecasts Poorly During Summer 2025

Climate Impact Company offers explanation for why North America 16-30-day (week-3/week-4) temperature forecasts have routinely produced very warm bias. Unusual presence and persistence of a summertime Northeast Canada polar vortex and convection phase Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) stretched across the tropical Pacific Ocean are the culprits significantly contributing to East U.S. heat and occasional historic rainfall events.
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08/18/2025, 9:25 am EDT
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08/18/2025, 9:25 am EDT

East Coast Impacts Due to Hurricane Erin

Primary impacts on the U.S. East Coast by Hurricane Erin are riptides beginning today and becoming widespread on Tuesday. In the riptide area, increasing and/or high waves and onset of beach erosion is likely. The conditions which become widespread tomorrow will continue through Thursday. The onset of tropical storm force wind is Wednesday for coastal North Carolina and possibly Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard on Thursday.
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08/18/2025, 5:03 am EDT
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08/18/2025, 5:03 am EDT

August 2025 U.S. Soil Moisture Observations/Outlook

The U.S. soil moisture observations and trend reveal ongoing and worsening West/Southwest U.S. drought and adding Northeast U.S. dryness which is (also) strengthening. The southern Canadian Prairies to the Midwest States and Carolinas are the wet zones.
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08/15/2025, 6:06 am EDT
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08/15/2025, 6:06 am EDT

Support (30-31C Water) for Category-4 Major Hurricane Erin East of Bahamas Early Next Week

Erin is forecast to steadily increase intensity today approaching 29C water temperatures and become a hurricane by tonight. The NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast brings Erin to a major hurricane tomorrow night and is trending farther west of 70W compared to previous forecasts citing the Google Deep Mind AI model. Erin will travel across 30C-31C water early next week which supports intensification to a category-4 major hurricane, somewhat stronger than forecast by NOAA/NHC.
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08/14/2025, 7:56 am EDT
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08/14/2025, 7:56 am EDT

30-Day Skill Scores of U.S. Medium-range Temperature Anomaly Forecasts

U.S. medium range 2-meter temperature anomaly forecasts during the past 30 days were most efficient utilizing the new AIFS ENS and ECM ENS in both the 6-10-day and 11-15-day periods. The highly visible GFS forecast lags with second lowest skill scores. Other AI models (4Cast Net V2) also produced lower skill scores. The Canadian Ensemble (CMC ENS) has performed quite well this summer season.
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08/14/2025, 5:28 am EDT
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08/14/2025, 5:28 am EDT

Focus on South America Climate: Southwest/Southeast Brazil to Argentina Drought Ahead Into Summer 2025-26

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast valid for September 2025 through January 2026 is based on influence of climate associated with developing weak La Nina and the presence of a marine heatwave off the Argentina Coast. The outlook worsens Brazil drought except for northeast Brazil. Drought in Argentina also worsens.
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08/12/2025, 9:37 am EDT
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08/12/2025, 9:37 am EDT

U.S. Climate Rankings for Each State in July

The U.S. observed the 19th hottest July in the 131-year climatology. Virginia and West Virginia were hottest on record for mid-summer. The eastern third of the U.S. was MUCH ABOVE normal during July. In July, the U.S. observed the 34th wettest mid-summer on record. Despite the heat, Virginia observed the 6th wettest July on record. Iowa observed their 2nd wettest July on record. Some states were very dry including Utah, Alabama, and Maine.
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08/12/2025, 9:36 am EDT
08/12/2025, 9:36 am EDT

East U.S. Heat Breaks Later August But Should Regenerate in September

Beginning next week, the hot weather affecting the East breaks down, and near normal temperatures prevail the remainder of the month. CIC agrees with ECMWF that anomalous warmth regenerates in September (AI and other operational models are cooler in the East during early September).
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08/12/2025, 9:32 am EDT
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08/12/2025, 9:32 am EDT

ECMWF Projects El Nino for 2026

ECMWF has shifted their Nino34 SSTA forecast to El Nino by MAR/APR/MAY 2026. ECMWF is the only forecaster, for now, with the El Nino risk. Since the 2015-16 El Nino episode, ENSO has fluctuated between weak La Nina and weak El Nino looks and that trend seems to be continuing.
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