A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) pattern has developed in the Caribbean Sea. The upper trough slowly drifts westward this week and is replaced by a second trough next week a little further to the north. The TUTT formed by release of shortwave energy from an energetic mid-latitude flow across the central North Atlantic basin southwestward into the tropics.

The Nino SSTA regions are all within neutral range entering July. Recent warming in the Nino12 region off the northwest coast of South America has eased back into the neutral range.