News
07/20/2025, 12:16 pm EDT
A map of the united states with different colored lines AI-generated content may be incorrect.

U.S. Crop Areas Hit By Heavy Rain Vs. Extreme Heat

The 2-week outlook across the U.S. features harsh high impact weather including a stretch of heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, and local flooding from the Southern Canadian Prairies across the North-Central U.S. and through the Midwest States.
07/20/2025, 9:30 am EDT

First North Atlantic Hurricanes 2016-24 and Following Activity

The Operational GFS and ECM forecast models are not projecting hurricane threats through their 15-day forecast period which brings us to August 4th without a hurricane so far during the 2025 season. Since 2018, the season’s first hurricane occurred prior to August 1st and during the 2016-24 active period (seasonal activity about 30% higher than the 30-year normal) the average date of the first hurricane is July 14th.
07/18/2025, 5:44 am EDT
A graph of a temperature forecast AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Comparing Best Dynamic and Machine Learning Forecast Models for Australia Outlook

On July 1st, the Artificial Intelligence Forecast System Ensemble (AIFS ENS) was introduced. So far, AIFS ENS is second-best forecasting 2-meter temperature across Australia for both the 6-10-day and 11-15-day periods. ECM ENS is number 1! The ECM ENS is routinely at the top for the past 1 year of the evaluations shown for most parts of the world including North America and Europe. The AIFS ENS debut is impressive, challenging ECM ENS at the top.
07/17/2025, 12:40 pm EDT
A screen shot of a graph AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Suddenly, Nino34 SSTA is Cooling. Some Models Forecast La Nina Ahead

During the past 1-2 weeks, the Nino34 SSTA has cooled by more than 0.4C to -0.28C in the latest daily analysis. The La Nina threshold is -0.5C. Running parallel (and possibly related) to the Nino34 SSTA cooling is the vivid cool SSTA off the U.S. West Coast with that cooler water riding the California Ocean Current south and southwestward toward the tropics.