06/11/2024, 2:57 pm EDT

New Potential Tropical System in The East Gulf

NOAA/NHC identified an area of disorganized low pressure southwest of Tampa, FL earlier today forecast to drift northeastward, crossing the Florida Peninsula, and re-emerging off the northeast Florida Coast within 36 hours. Strengthening prior to striking the Florida West Coast is unlikely due to upper shear although SST is a buoyant 86F and supports organization.
06/10/2024, 2:12 pm EDT

Incoming Heat for Midwest/Mid-south U.S. Weekend

To the north of a potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico and to the east of an approaching cold front and beneath strengthening subtropical ridging an area of “major” heat is forecast by NOAA centered on Iowa and the Mid-south U.S. on Sunday June 16. The maximum temperature in the “major” heat risk area is well into the 90’s with heat index to the 100-105F range. Sunday is the peak heat day. However, temperatures could be nearly as hot for most of next week.
06/10/2024, 5:45 am EDT

Extreme Rains Over Southern Florida This Week

The NOAA/WPC 5-day rainfall forecast indicates up to 20 inches of rain across southwest Florida. The heavy rain is caused by a fetch of tropical moisture across Florida to the south of a stationary frontal system across Northern Florida. In the 6-7-day period the rainfall area shifts westward to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico with a chance of some tropical development.